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The Toronto real estate market seems to be staging a comeback, with sales showing an uptick compared to the dormant state witnessed in January 2023.

This trend is expected to persist throughout much of 2024. Considering the abysmal performance of 2023, where records hit an all-time low, each month in 2024 is likely to demonstrate significant improvement on a year-over-year basis.

While the real estate industry will undoubtedly seize upon these year-over-year figures to craft a bullish narrative, it’s crucial to examine the monthly dynamics to discern any sustained trends.

Monthly Dynamics:

A notable occurrence was the decline in prices from December to January, a rare phenomenon. According to GTA realtor Vassil Staykov, this has only been observed twice in the past 16 years (in 2009 and 2019). Typically, the year commences with a 2% increase in median price.

To provide context for forthcoming trends, two key points should be noted:

December exhibited relative strength, witnessing an unusual surge in both price and sales volume compared to November.
2023 experienced sluggish price growth and sales volume, marking a 23-year low in sales.
While the annual outlook appears promising, it’s crucial to examine the developments since the previous month.

New Listings:

There was a notable increase in new listings from December to January, a common trend as many listings expire on December 31 and are relisted in January.